“Meet the Press” 11/2/14 –Sen. Rand Paul Calls Voter ID Issue “Dumb”; Exclusive w/ Kaci Hickox; New Polls For Races In GA, LA & KY

Sen. Paul on 2016: “I’ve always said it’s going to be spring until I make a decision anyway” Kaci Hickox on Gov. Christie’s decision to quarantine:  “It was really an abundance of politics.” Joe Scarborough on Sen. Paul in 2016: “He’s going to do better than his father and he’s not going to win.”

NOVEMBER 2, 2014 — Today’s “Meet the Press with Chuck Todd” featured an exclusive interview with Nurse Kaci Hickox; an interview with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY); reports with the latest in the battleground races from NBC News Congressional Correspondent Luke Russert,NBC News Capitol Hill Correspondent Kelly O’Donnell, MSNBC Political Correspondent Kasie Hunt, Miami Herald’s Political Writer Marc Caputo and WTMJ-TV’s Charles Benson.

This morning’s political panel included former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs,NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, NBC News senior political analyst and host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”Joe Scarborough, and former Chairman of the RNC Michael Steele. Plus a panel on the new polls with the Cook Political Report’s Charlie Cook & Amy Walter, Hart Research Associates’Fred Yang and Public Opinion Strategies’ Bill McInturff. Finally, a new NBC News/WSJ poll on the mood of the country and new NBC News/Marist polls on races in Georgia, Louisiana and Kentucky.

Full analysis of the polls can be found online here:

http://nbcnews.to/1zZhSj8

http://nbcnews.to/1wUn8i8

 

Below are highlights, video, and a rush transcript of today’s program. All content will be available online at http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press

 

# # #

 

Sen. Paul on the possibility that the GOP will take control of Senate:

 

RAND PAUL:

 

I think it’ll be a combination of both.  This is going to be a repudiation of the president’s policies.  The president is on the ballot, in a way.  This is a referendum on the president.  So, no question this is a big message to the president.  But also, it’s a message that people are tired of nothing getting done.

 

The gridlock in Washington has largely been from the Democrats, who haven’t allowed any legislation to come forward in the Senate.  So, I think if we win, you will see legislation passed and you will see legislation sent to the desk of the president.

 

# # #

 

Sen. Paul on the brand issue with Republicans:

 

RAND PAUL:

 

Well, I think you have to show up.  And then you have to say something.  So, I’ve spent the last year showing up, everywhere from Howard University to Berkeley to the Urban League to Ferguson to the NAACP.  But showing up’s not enough.  We have to show that we have a policy.

 

And you know what I’m sensing when I do show up in the African American community and our big cities?  I’m sensing, and they say this to me time after time, “We’re being taken for granted.  The Democrats don’t show up.  Haven’t seen my congressman lately.”  So, I think there’s a huge opportunity for us.  And while not everybody says they’re ready to become a Republican, many people say they’re glad I’m there and they want us to compete for their vote.

 

# # #

 

Kaci Hickox on her self-quarantine:

 

KACI HICKOX:

 

Yes.  I want to clarify that a bit.  Because I understand that the community has been through a lot in the past week and that I do, you know, apologize to them for that.  I will not go into town, into crowded public places.  You know, I have had a few friends come visit me in my home and that’s absolutely fantastic.

 

But on the other hand, you know, my partner is currently in nursing school.  And there is definitely zero scientific evidence that says that he shouldn’t be allowed to return to his campus on Monday.

 

# # #

 

Kaci Hickox on being parodied on Saturday Night Live:

 

KACI HICKOX:

 

You know, I haven’t seen it yet.  My partner and I don’t have cable here.  But I had at least, you know, five or six friends send me text messages to let me know.  So, I will look that up today.

 

# # #

 

Joe Scarborough on the contested races for the GOP and issues with the base:

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

Just on the South really quickly, because if you had told me a year ago Republicans would be sweating it out in North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas a week out, yeah, I would say this isn’t going to be a Republican wave.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Bizarre.

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

So, I don’t think talking about African Americans’ voting patterns in the South is actually a legitimate question.  I think the bigger question is why haven’t Republicans closed down North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas by now?  So, actually, the question is not about race.  The question is about the Republican base, still disaffected.

 

# # #

 

Robert Gibbs on Hillary Clinton and the run up to 2016:

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

Well, look, that’s going to be a process that takes more time than just 2014.  I don’t think she’s had a particularly good run with the book.  I wouldn’t have done as many interviews as she did.  I think they hastened the process of Republican attacks, which were certainly going to come.  But I would’ve waited.  I will say, as a Democrat sitting here, you have to be impressed with what Rand Paul was saying.  To have a positive talking point before the election I think is usually important.  And I think Jeb Bush is one to watch.

 

# # #

 

Below is a RUSH transcript of the 10AM feed of this morning’s broadcast — mandatory attribution to NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” A final transcript of the program will be available at www.MeetThePressNBC.com.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

This Sunday with just 48 hours to go until election day, it’s our midterm special.  Are we looking at a Republican Senate wave or can the Democrats hang on?  We’re live from key battleground states.  And we’ve got some new polls that may tell us where this race is headed on Tuesday.  Plus, meeting the voters.  They had one very clear message for Washington.

 

MALE VOTER (TAPE):

 

We’re supposed to be united.  Stop the bickering.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

And meeting the candidates who seem to be getting that message.

 

THOM TILLIS (TAPE):

 

We’ve got produce results.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

My final report from a battleground road trip.  Also, 2016 candidates, start your engines.  All week, the likely contenders from both parties have been making themselves a presence.

 

CHRIS CHRISTIE (TAPE):

 

Sit down and shut up.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

I’ll be joined by Republican presidential hopefuls Rand Paul.  And we have Ebola in America.  After winning her quarantine showdown. Nurse Kaci Hickox joins me exclusively.

 

KACI HICKOX (TAPE):

 

This battle isn’t over.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

I’m Chuck Todd.  And joining me to provide insight and analysis are former chair of the Republican Party, Michael Steele; NBC’s own Andrea Mitchell; President Obama’s first White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs; and NBC’s senior political analyst, Joe Scarborough.  Welcome to Sunday.  It’s Meet the Press.

 

ANNOUNCER:

 

From NBC News election headquarters in New York, this is Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

And good morning from said election headquarters, right here at 30 Rock.  We are ready for election night on Tuesday after my road trip across key battleground states.  We’ve got lots on that later in the show.  But I want to get right to our latest NBC News Marist polls from three more states in three more key senate races.

 

And right now, they bring some welcome news for Republicans, particularly in states where they were playing some defense.  In Kentucky, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has a nine-point lead.  He’s sitting at 50%, 41% there for Alison Grimes among likely voters.  Grimes, of course, the Democratic nominee.  In Georgia, Republican candidate David Perdue is clinging to a four-point lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn, 48%, 44%.  If neither candidate gets 50%, we are headed for a January runoff in Georgia.

 

In Louisiana, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu has an eight-point edge right now in the so-called jungle primary.  She leads Republican Bill Cassidy 44% to 46%.  Republican conservative Tea Party challenger Rob Maness sits at 15%.  Of course, if no one gets a majority in Louisiana, that does trigger a runoff in December.  And right there, Cassidy has the edge over Landrieu 50% to 45%.

 

So, this morning, things looking good for Republican hopes of winning the Senate.  They couldn’t afford to lose either Kentucky or George.  But the voters I met on my road trip across the South made it very clear they’re not happy with either party right now.

 

(BEGIN TAPE)

 

LOUISIANA VOTER #1:

 

One of the biggest problems in Washington is that there are career politicians.  And from the day they get elected, the next day their job is to get reelected.

 

LOUISIANA VOTER #2:

 

I would clean house on both parties.

 

LOUISIANA VOTER #3:

 

We’re supposed to be united.  Stop the bickering.

 

NORTH CAROLINA VOTER #1:

 

I would love for there to be an independent president that would do a really great job and take people into consideration instead of the party.

 

NORTH CAROLINA VOTER #2:

 

Really care about the people that you’re representing.

 

NORTH CAROLINA #3:

 

What about moderates?  Does that exist?  Because it has become so extreme.

 

GEORGIA VOTER:

 

We don’t trust anybody anymore to look out for the working person.

 

ARKANSAS VOTER #1:

 

I’m not a party line person.  I’m a candidate person.  And there’s a lot of folks in Arkansas that are that way.

 

ARKANSAS VOTER #2:

 

I would like some crossing over the aisle.

 

ARKANSAS VOTER #1:

 

A lot of these guys that are making the rules and the laws are so out of touch.  They have no idea what they’re even making the laws over.

 

(END TAPE)

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Those are your undecided voters, folks.  That’s why this election is still on a knife’s edge.  By the way, the New York Times reports this morning, ready for this, the National Republican Senatorial Committee already has chartered a jet waiting to fly lawyers in wherever there may be a disputed election.  Things are that close, particularly in places, perhaps, like Colorado or, who knows, Alaska.

 

Now, let’s check on some of the key races.  We’ve got the bases covered with correspondents joining us from five states across the country.  We’re going to start in Georgia where, as we just saw, Democrat Michelle Nunn is trailing slightly in her Senate battle with David Perdue.  MSNBC’s Kasie Hunt is on the ground in Atlanta for us.  And Kasie, this is clearly about a turnout game and right now the Democrats’ goal is to get this to a runoff.

 

KASIE HUNT:

 

Hey, Chuck.  Yes, at this point, it’s all about whether or not Democrats can remake the electorate.  And so far, they seem to be doing a fairly good job.  Early vote totals show about 33% of the electorate is African American so far.  Both sides say that number’s going to drop.

 

But that’s where they need to be if they’re going to push their candidates Jason Carter for governor and Michelle Nunn for Senate over the finish line.  Now, both Republicans and Democrats agree that Nunn is probably the strongest candidate the Democrats have fielded on the Senate map this year, bar none.  But whether it’s going to be enough is still a pretty open question.  And as you said, both sides are preparing for a runoff.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Kasie Hunt in Atlanta.  By the way, Georgia, the worst economy in the nation.  That’s the real backdrop now.  Now to Kansas, where things are extremely tight between the Independent candidate Greg Orman and the incumbent Republican Pat Roberts.

 

Our own Capitol Hill correspondent Kelly O’Donnell is making Kansas her home for the next three days.  Shawnee Mission is where she is this morning.  And Kelly, this has been about Republicans trying to get the base out versus Greg Orman trying to find those angry voters in the middle that I talked to.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

And Chuck, this battleground thing, it’s new for Kansas, right.  Republicans here tell me they are having trust issues.  All the anger at Washington, they say that three-term incumbent Pat Roberts, he has been part of the problem, spending too much time there, not enough time here.

 

That really made that lane for Greg Orman, who is a self-made businessman.  But voters say because he won’t say which party he would align with, told me he might even switch back and forth, they don’t know what kind of senator he would be.  That makes it tough.  So, all the Republicans are flooding the zone.  Bob Dole, the Kansas icon, will be here today.  Greg Orman looks at that and says that’s a Washington establishment clown car, all that outside help.  Chuck.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Kelly O’Donnell, enjoy Kansas.  That’s for sure.  Now, let’s go to Florida.  This is the big gubernatorial prize in the country here.  All eyes, Democratic Charlie Crist, the incumbent Republican there.  Rick Scott, most expensive race in the country.

 

Let’s check in in my hometown of Miami.  Marc Caputo there the beat reporter there at the Miami Herald.  And Marc, what are you watching?  This early vote, is it really an advantage for Crist?  Does this feel like Democrats are slightly ahead of where they were in 2010, which was a very close race?

 

MARC CAPUTO:

 

Democrats are ahead of where they were in 2010.  They’re way behind where they were in 2012.  Right now, Republicans probably have about a 130,000 vote margin, maybe a little less, over Democrats in early and absentee ballots cast.  That could become significant.

 

The polls are showing right now that it depends on the poll who’s winning.  Quinnipiac University has Crist up three percentage points.  That’s inside the error margin.  And SEA Polling and Design has Rick Scott up three percentage points.

 

That’s also inside the error margin.  It’s essentially a tie race.  The dumbest and smartest thing said in politics is that it’s all about turnout.  And it’s gonna be all about turnout.  This election will actually probably be won or lost on election day.  The question is, by whom?

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

That’s for sure.  And the wild card, that third candidate, how high is his number and who does he poll from?  Marc Caputo, great work this year covering that race.  Thank you, sir.  The other big governor’s race that’s on the national race is, of course, in Wisconsin.  Democrat Mary Burke is hoping to unseat Republican Governor Scott Walker in his third campaign for governor in four years.  Charles Benson from our affiliate at WTMJ in Milwaukee for us.  And Charles, the Walker people saw that last poll from Marquette University, they were up seven.  It shocked a lot of people.  Does anybody believe that somehow, Walker has expanded his lead like that?

 

CHARLES BENSON:

 

I don’t think either side believes the margin is that big.  But as you point out, the poll had Walker up by seven where, just two weeks ago, it was dead even.  Chuck, you know this state is pretty interesting.  It’s not a red state or a blue state.  Democrats have won the last seven straight presidential races.  But Republican governors have won six out of the last eight in that timeframe.  And, as you point out, Governor Walker now in his third election in four years.

 

Go back to 2012, when he wins the recall election, become the first governor in history to win a recall.  He wins with 2.5 million voters going out to the polls.  Five months later, President Obama wins this state by about the same margin.  So, both sides indicate it’s all about getting out the vote.  And they’ll see how that works out on Tuesday.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Thank you, Charles.  And as you told me, that 2.5 million figure a key figure.  If the turnout is higher than that, that’s probably good news for Mary Burke.  Charles, thanks very much.  And finally, to Iowa, where Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst are purportedly in a neck-and-neck race for the open Senate seat there.

 

I say purportedly because there’s a brand-new Des Moines Register poll out this morning that indicates Ernst has a seven-point lead.  Our own congressional correspondent Luke Russert is standing by in Des Moines.  And Luke, that had to be a stomach punch to Democrats last night when the final Des Moines Register poll came out with that margin.

 

LUKE RUSSERT:

 

Yes.  You’re completely right, Chuck.  This poll is considered the gold standard, especially ahead of elections here in Iowa.  Some real worrisome news for Bruce Braley.  Two things that stood out to me in that poll.  Number one, he’s losing his own congressional district by three points.  He’s going to have to go campaign there over the next two days to try and turn out the vote there if he has any chance.

 

The other thing within that poll, Chuck, Joni Ernst, who he’s campaigning against, the Republican, actually polling better on the issue of, “Who cares more about people like me?”  That is something that Democrats ordinarily do better on than Republicans.  In this case, Ernst is really doing a good job on it.

 

And she also adds this sort of novelty of her candidacy.  She’s a combat veteran.  She would be the first woman sent to Washington from Iowa if she were to win.  And she’s really been able to, through the powerful personality narrative, sort of make Braley very Washington and very unlikable.  Something to keep an eye on if she is to win also, Chuck, looking ahead to 2016, she would be the number-one surrogate that any of those Republican presidential candidates would want.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Yes.  That’s for sure.  She could become a quick star.  Anyway, Luke Russert in Iowa.  Thank you, sir.  This is such a surprisingly unpredictable election when you see the numbers we have nationally.  So, we needed two panels to sort it all out.

 

Joining me now are some of the smartest minds in political analysis.  Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report; Amy Walter, national editor of the Cook Political Report; and two of our NBC News Wall Street Journal pollsters, Fred Yang, the Democratic pollster from Hart Research Associates; and Bill MacInturff, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies.  And Fred and Bill, you’ve just given us some brand-new data.  I appreciate that.  Here’s our generic congressional ballot.  Nationwide likely voters say they prefer a Republican congress, but it’s by the slimmest of margins, 46%, 45%.

 

Here’s another surprising finding.  In the ten Senate battleground states, which largely had leaned Republican, so we all thought, the margin is the same, just one point, 47%, 46%.  Bill MacInturff, your part thinks it has the wind at its back.  I feel like Republicans are trying to will a wave coming on.  One piece of good news, then there’s a step back.  This is a tight election.

 

BILL MCINTURFF:

 

It is a tight election.  But guess what.  These Senate seats are in the South.  President Obama’s job approval is 23%.  The negative on the Democratic Party is 64%.  That’s a death star number.  The Democrats happen to control the Senate in the South.  I think it’s too far a stretch.  I think political gravity kicks in.  I think the Senate goes Republican.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Fred, you look at these numbers, did it make you feel better this morning?

 

FRED YANG:

 

Made me feel like the things we need to have happen on election day and in a lot of these close states is maybe coming to fruition.  For a while now, there’s been a voter interest enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats.  Now Democrats are catching up.  And the one number from the generic is that with registered voters, which is a broader electorate than likely voters, the Democrats still have a four-point edge, which means, as the reporter from Miami said, it’s about turnout.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

It is.  It’s cliché.  It’s about turnout.  Charlie and Amy, I’m going to put up here our graphic.  This is all our polls, basically the best poll we think, most recent best poll in all the Senate battlegrounds.  You’ve seen the Kentucky, that’s ours.  Iowa, Des Moines Register plus seven.  Frankly, neither side believes that number, for what it’s worth.  But the Des Moines Register, they have a great reputation.

 

Louisiana, you saw Georgia, four-point lead there.  Arkansas, we had it at two.  Others have it a little bit bigger there for the Republicans.  Colorado, one point.  New Hampshire, two points in the Democrats’ favor.  North Carolina, two points in the Democrats’ favor.  Kansas, one point.  Charlie, you look at this, toss-up races.  Do you think they all move in one direction?  Is this an ’06?  Or do you think Democrats have done such a good job that maybe they can split this decision?

 

CHARLIE COOK:

 

Well, Jennifer Duffy, our Senate editor, has figured out that if you looked at the last what was it? Like, eight elections that the toss-ups have tended to break by over 2/3, like 68%, one way or the other.

 

I think Republicans are going to win the lion’s share or the really close ones.  But keep in mind, these are home games for Republicans.  I mean, the first six seats that Romney won by 14 points or more.  And those are probably the first Democratic seats to go over the side.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Amy, is this an anti-Democrat year, an anti-Obama year, or an anti-incumbent year and an anti-Washington year?  What is it?

 

AMY WALTER:

 

It’s an anti-establishment year.  And right now, the establishment is the Democratic Party.  The president is a Democrat.  People are frustrated with the direction that he’s taken the country.  And Democrats are the incumbent party in most of these Senate seats.  So, if you’re frustrated, and these guys in their polls found that that’s the second-most important issues for voters is breaking the gridlock in Washington.  Yes, Republicans get some of the blame.  But, again, when you’re the party in charge, you get most of that blame.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Bill, I have to ask you this.  If the Republicans come up short, how are they going to second guess themselves?

 

BILL MCINTURFF:

 

Well, first, I don’t think the Republicans come up short.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

I understand that.  But what’s the one thing bothering you about this?

 

BILL MCINTURFF:

 

The one thing that’s bothering me is big money, data analytics, and the Obama turnaround operation in the states of North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, and the other places where they’re used to running for president.  And that’s what we don’t know.  We’ll see how political gravity, Republicans, versus that new technology, which wins on Tuesday.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Fred, what’s going to be the second guessing among Democrats if they lose this Senate?

 

FRED YANG:

 

I think the second guessing will be bad luck to have a lot of road gains.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

It’s a bad map?

 

FRED YANG:

 

Yes.  You know, the six-year itch is important.  The president’s numbers are lower.  But, look, I think in terms of the broader perspective, we’re going to probably see a record-low turnout.  So, on your piece, the discussion about anti-establishment, I think voters are already voting.  And they’re already voting by not voting.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Yes, that is, and none of the above.  Very quickly to both of you, best and worst campaigns of the cycle.  Let’s give the awards, regardless of what happens on Tuesday night.  Amy, I’ll start with you.

 

AMY WALTER:

 

I’m going to say Cory Gardner in Colorado and Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

That’s two.

 

AMY WALTER:

 

Those are the two best races.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

And who ran the worst?

 

AMY WALTER:

 

I mean, you have to give it to Pat Roberts.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

That’s right, Republican state.

 

AMY WALTER:

 

I mean, come on.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

To be where you are.

 

AMY WALTER:

 

And where he is is remarkable.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Fair enough.  Charlie?

 

CHARLIE COOK:

 

I’d say on the Senate side, Mitch McConnell.  I mean, the thing is, there were people that did not want to vote for someone that was one of the most powerful members of Congress.  I think he ran a flawless campaign and is pulling away.  And on the other side, I think Governor Rick Scott is an extremely polarizing figure, but I think they had an awesome campaign.  And is it enough?  I’m not sure it’s enough.  But sometimes, the great campaigns still lose.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Worst campaign?

 

CHARLIE COOK:

 

I think I’m with you.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

It’s all Pat Roberts.  I have to say.  I have to give the award for best to Al Franken.  Because guess who we’re not talking about today.  Closest Senate election six years ago, Al Franken.  Recount, all of those things.  How did this guy survive?  Six years of a well-run campaign.  You have to give that to him.  I’m going to have to leave it there.  Bill and Fred, I’ll see you a lot.  Charlie and Amy, we’re going to see you a lot, Charlie, on Tuesday.

 

Coming up, besides meeting voters, I met some candidates.  Democrats fighting to win in four Southern states.  President Obama lost, in some cases, big in 2012.  And later, my exclusive interview with Kaci Hickox, the nurse from Maine who fought and won her fight over being quarantined.

 

***Commercial Break**

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

We’ve got some interesting campaign data for you from Facebook on the states that I visited.  It turns out the more times an incumbent gets mentioned within his or her state on Facebook, the worse it might be for them.  Why?  Because it’s a sign, perhaps, that the race is not becoming a choice anymore but a referendum on that said incumbent, just what a sitting member does not want.

 

For instance, in Louisiana, Mary Landrieu was getting 82% of in-state mentions on Facebook.  That’s not good.  Same thing in Kansas, where Pat Roberts is coming in at 72%.  Guess what.  Both are struggling.  Of the incumbents we tracked, only the North Carolina Senate candidates are close to parity.  And guess what.  The Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan is the one that’s in the best shape.  When we come back, what we heard from the candidates while I was on the road meeting the voters.

 

***Commercial Break**

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

And welcome back.  President Obama has been a big presence on the midterm campaign trail with many Democrats actively distancing themselves from the White House.  Boy, but it’s really striking that in the South, he hasn’t made a single appearance in this fall campaign.  For the lack of my meet-the-voters road trip, I swung through the Southern battleground states for the Senate and met with the candidates that are all fighting for their own political future.

 

(Begin Tape)

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

Our road trip to meet the candidates stretched 3,100 miles to states that will decide control of the Senate.  And it ended in the South, where Democratic dynasties are battling to survive in places the president is deeply unpopular.

 

SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D-LA):

 

In this polarized environment, there are no more Get Out of Jail Free cards, okay.  They have gone.

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

From North Carolina to Georgia, Arkansas to Louisiana, while Republicans run against the president, Democrats are running away from him.

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

What should President Obama learn from this election seat?

 

MARK PRYOR:

 

Well, of course, I wish he was more in touch with rural America.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

You think he doesn’t understand rural America?

 

SEN. MARK PRYOR (D-AR):

 

Well, just how the whole country works, not just parts of it.

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

Senator Mark Pryor is now the last Arkansas Democrat left in Congress.  And he’s in an uphill battle against Republican Congressman Tom Cotton.

 

SEN. MARK PRYOR (D-AR):

 

People here, they’re as frustrated with Washington as anybody in the country.  They are.  But they’re not frustrated with me.  Because they know I’ve tried.  I’ve tried to bring people together.

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

In Georgia, the highest unemployment rate in the nation, 7.9%, is the backdrop for a tight battle between Michelle Nunn, daughter of longtime Senator Sam Nunn; and former businessman David Perdue.

 

MICHELLE NUNN (D-GA):

 

David Perdue, my opponent is against closing tax loopholes that actually incent businesses to take jobs overseas.

 

DAVID PERDUE (R-GA):

 

A lot of people are critical about this outsourcing idea.  But the issue is at Dollar General, for example, we created almost 20,000 jobs in a very short period of time.  And we outsourced all of the products and services that we sold in the stores.

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

In North Carolina, Democratic Senator Kay Hagan has localized her race, trying to make the debate about statewide education cuts by the Republican legislature, a charge her opponent, State Speaker Thom Tillis, has tried to deflect.

 

STATE REP. THOM TILLIS(R-NC):

 

So, I think if you look at my record, you would be hard pressed to say that we’ve really gone down a partisan path, before we had the super majorities or even afterwards.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

You’re saying you didn’t.  But the public thinks you did.  The Democrats in Washington aren’t popular here.  The Republicans in Raleigh aren’t popular here.  What is the lesson you would take to Washington, the lesson that you take away from the partisanship?

 

THOM TILLIS:

 

We’ve got to produce results.

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

If Democrats hold on in Southern states that Mitt Romney won by double digits, it will be because they win a numbers game, which relies on African-American turnout.  In Louisiana, Senator Mary Landrieu is unpopular because of his energy policies, but then she added this.

 

SEN. MARY LANDRIEU (D-LA):

 

I’m going to be very, very honest with you.  And the South has not always been the friendliest place for African Americans.  It’s been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a very positive light as a leader.  It’s not always been a good place for women to be able to present ourselves.

 

CHUCK TODD (V/O):

 

In the campaign’s final days, racially charged messages like these have circulated.  The Georgia Democratic Party put these flyers out.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

If you don’t vote, we could have another Ferguson here. Appropriate?

 

MICHELLE NUNN:

 

You know, I keep talking about Ferguson from the lens of a mom.  Because I think we all relate to it as parents in thinking about the tragic loss of a young man.

 

CHUCK TODD :

 

Would the Nunn for Senate campaign have put out that flyer?

 

MICHELLE NUNN:

 

It is not something that we have done.  And yet, I think it is something that merits a conversation by Georgia voters.  I really do.

 

(END TAPE)

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Our all-star panel is here.  Michael Steele, Andrea Mitchell, Robert Gibbs, Joe Scarborough.  Joe, just looking at the South, we know the South is a numbers game.  It’s a more polarized environment.  There aren’t any swing voters.  This really is about Democrats getting out African Americans, Republicans running against President Obama.  How much does this race play a role?  You were a Southern politician.

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

I mean, I guess it does every couple years.  In this case, you know, Barack Obama’s done well in North Carolina.  He’s done pretty well in Georgia, without, as David Axelrod said, even campaigning there.  Yes, that was pretty shocking that Mary Landrieu would say that on the air to you.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

But Robert, Democrats have been talking about this privately for years.  What say you on this issue, President Obama’s race a factor in his unpopularity in the South?

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

Well, look, I think we can’t walk away from the history of the South.  I mean, it’s obvious.  I think race is still the predominant factor in Southern races.  You see, trying to get out the black vote is what is going to either be the thing that sends Mary Landrieu and Michelle Nunn to the Senate or not.

 

And I think primarily, what you see campaigns working on right now are those drop-off voters, the people that voted in 2008 and 2012 in these presidential elections stayed home in 2010.  The data and analytics are trying to search most for those voters and get them out.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Michael Steele, one thing we’re not talking about is Republicans targeting African-American voters.  Once again, it’s not happening.  They’re leaving the playing field to the Democrats.

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

They are leaving the playing field to the Democrats, although there have been some efforts by Orlando Watkins at the R.N.C. and others who have put some efforts on the ground in certain communities.  But broadly speaking, no, it’s not been there.

 

And I think they seeded a lot of that ground to the Democrats.  And it’s interesting.  Because there is not an energy in the black community for Democratic candidates this year.  We’re seeing it in Maryland, where the African-American candidate for governor is struggling against the Republican.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

But Andrea, you know, let’s talk about this a little bigger picture here.  Does this just feel like the same time of midterm election you’ve covered before, that we’re headed to a mini wave in the Republicans’ direction?  Or is there something different about this now?

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

I think what’s different is also a negative for Democrats.  What’s different is ISIS                or ISIL, Ebola, a feeling of insecurity, and the economic data, the fact that people are not seeing the progress in wages, in their own income that they’re seeing in terms of the overall numbers.  So, you can say that the GDP plus 3.5%.  But they’re not seeing it in their own lives in their earning power.

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

Just on the South really quickly, because if you had told me a year ago Republicans would be sweating it out in North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas a week out, yeah, I would say this isn’t going to be a Republican wave.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Bizarre.

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

So, I don’t think talking about African Americans’ voting patterns in the South is actually a legitimate question.  I think the bigger question is why haven’t Republicans closed down North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas by now?  So, actually, the question is not about race.  The question is about the Republican base, still disaffected.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

And what it is, is what I found out, it’s the economy, Robert.  Nobody’s touching this.  Rural America, the economy still stinks.  Democrats didn’t talk to it very well.  Republicans haven’t talked.  They just say, “Anti-Obama.”  And Democrats are, like, trying other issues, even wedge issues.  They’re not talking about what’s staring rural America in the face.

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

And you asked the previous panel what will be the second guessing after this race.  I think it is the fact that neither side, but I think Democrats needed to spend more time talking about what to do on the economy.  As Andrea rightly said, the numbers may look different than they did in 2008.  But it’s how people feel it in their lives every day.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Exactly.  The numbers don’t look different.  Alright, I’m going to pause it here.  You guys are going to come back.  Because this whole why conversation, sort of why haven’t the Republicans closed the deal, what should the Democrats have done?

 

We’re going to keep that conversation going.  But I’m going to take a quick break.  Because I have Rand Paul coming up.  Is the Republican Party ready for Rand?  And what will Republicans do if they win control of the Senate?  Do they have an agenda before the 2016 race begins?

 

**Commercial Break**

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Welcome back.  As we’ve been discussing, Republicans expect to gain seats in the House.  They’re optimistic about taking the Senate for the first time since 2006.  So, what would the party do with control with both branches of the legislature?  I’m joined now by Rand Paul of Kentucky.  Senator, sometime Libertarian, and likely presidential candidate.  Senator Paul, welcome back to Meet the Press.

 

RAND PAUL:

 

Good morning, Chuck.  Glad to be here.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

So, on Tuesday, if you guys, the Republican Party gets control of the Senate.  Have the voters said they’re voting for the Republican Party?  Or have the voters simply said they’re voting against President Obama and it’s not a mandate for the GOP?  How should the GOP interpret winning control of the Senate, if that does happen?

 

RAND PAUL:

 

I think it’ll be a combination of both.  This is going to be a repudiation of the president’s policies.  The president is on the ballot, in a way.  This is a referendum on the president.  So, no question this is a big message to the president.  But also, it’s a message that people are tired of nothing getting done.

 

The gridlock in Washington has largely been from the Democrats, who haven’t allowed any legislation to come forward in the Senate.  So, I think if we win, you will see legislation passed and you will see legislation sent to the desk of the president.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

You know, a lot of Democrats would say House Republicans, you know, and Ted Cruz, and some other people were responsible for the government shutdown.  So, both parties say the blame here.  But I want to ask you something about something you said the other day in Michigan.   You said, “Remember Domino’s Pizza?”  This was about the Republican brand.  “They admitted, ‘Hey, our pizza crust sucks.’  The Republican Party brand sucks,” you said, “and, so, people don’t want to be a Republican.  And for 80 years, African Americans have had nothing to do with Republicans.  Why?  Because of perception.  The problem is the perception is that no one in the Republican Party cares.”  So, you’re admitting you have a brand problem.  How do you fix the brand problem before 2016, if that’s the case?

 

RAND PAUL:

 

Well, I think you have to show up.  And then you have to say something.  So, I’ve spent the last year showing up, everywhere from Howard University to Berkeley to the Urban League to Ferguson to the NAACP.  But showing up’s not enough.  We have to show that we have a policy.

 

And you know what I’m sensing when I do show up in the African American community and our big cities?  I’m sensing, and they say this to me time after time, “We’re being taken for granted.  The Democrats don’t show up.  Haven’t seen my congressman lately.”  So, I think there’s a huge opportunity for us.  And while not everybody says they’re ready to become a Republican, many people say they’re glad I’m there and they want us to compete for their vote.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

But this distrust of the Republican Party and the African American community in some ways gets enhanced when Republicans go for voter ID laws, which a lot of people say is a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist.  You’ve been on both sides of this.  You said at one point the voter ID drive was sort of overdone by Republicans.  And then, you walked it back.  Which is it?

 

RAND PAUL:

 

Well, it’s kind of funny the way you describe it.  Because my position is pretty clear.  I don’t think there’s a problem with showing your ID.  But I do think there’s a problem with Republicans saying, “Hey, our big issue for the campaign is going to be voter ID.”  Because what it creates is in a lot of African Americans, understandably, remember the ’40s and ’50s in the South.

 

And they remember suppression of the vote.  And they equate that.  So, what I try to do is I say the opposite.  I say, “I want more people to vote.  I’m for enhancing vote.  And I actually sponsor a bill with Harry Reid that would restore voting rights to people who had youthful, nonviolent crimes, that served their time.”

 

In my state, there are 250,000 people who can’t vote because of an old conviction.  I have a friend whose brother had a conviction 30 years ago and can’t vote.  So, I want to restore votes.  It doesn’t mean that I think it’s unreasonable.  I just think it’s a dumb idea for Republicans to emphasize this and say, “Oh, this is how we’re going to win the election.”

 

Early voting should be out there for everybody.  I’m for early voting.  I’m for more voting.  But I’m saying let’s go to the black community and compete for the vote.  Let’s talk about criminal justice and school choice and economic opportunity.  There are ways we can get African-American vote to come to the Republican Party.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Let’s talk about a Republican agenda if you get control.  Are Republicans going to send a repeal of health care, a repeal of the Affordable Care Act, to the president’s desk or not?  Mitch McConnell has said that was a priority, and then he has said, “Well, we don’t have 60 votes.  So, it’s not going to happen.”  Then he had said, “Well, maybe with 51 ones votes we can do it.”  Are you lying to your base when you say you’re going to try to repeal health care?  Or, I mean, is it a serious effort?  Or is it just something to gen-up base turnout?

 

RAND PAUL:

 

No.  I think we should repeal Obamacare.  And I think what’s made people most unhappy about it is they’ve lost their freedom of choice.  It isn’t about the wonky health care policy.  It’s about whether every American can choose their doctor or choose their insurance policy.  When they have made it illegal through Obamacare for you to choose an inexpensive insurance policy, that should be overturned.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

So, it’s a priority?

 

RAND PAUL:

 

We will definitely have a priority.  And we will introduce it and try to pass it.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Very quickly, in 2016, do you delay the start of your presidential campaign because you think Republicans should try to have an agenda in the Senate for, say, six months?

 

RAND PAUL:

 

Well, I’ve always said it’s going to be spring until I make a decision anyway.  My number-one priority for January will be there’s $2 trillion of American profit overseas.  I’m going to try to pass a bill to bring that home at a reduced rate, put the money into roads and bridges and say, “Look, we’ve got some problems here at home.

 

“Let’s rebuild America.  Let’s do some nation building of America first.”  And I think we can pass that.  There’s bipartisan support for it.  Barbara supports it on the Left.  I support it on the Right.  The president, once upon a time, supported it.  My number-one priority will be to lower this tax to bring American profit and jobs home in January.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Rand Paul, Republican, the junior senator from Kentucky, but in many ways has played kingmaker on the campaign trail, I’ve noticed this year.  Senator Paul, we’ll be watching you on Tuesday.  Thanks very much.

 

RAND PAUL:

 

Thanks, Chuck.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Let’s get a quick reaction from the panel.  Joe, I saw you.

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

We were saying during the break.  I said Republicans are going to have to have a positive agenda.  Republicans that are out there in red states talking about cutting education, cutting infrastructure, cutting R&D are losing, even losing among Republicans.  And remember?  I said it five minutes ago.  They’re going to have to start talking about more than just cutting.  He just did.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Rand Paul has figured this out.

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

He’s figured it out.  That is smart.  Except for the repeal of Obamacare, which is a waste of time.  It contributes to the gridlock.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

I was just going to say.  And it’s going to set the wrong tone.

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

It’s so retro.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Like, how do they do it?

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

Exactly.  But everything else that he said and talking about reaching out, being there, showing up, going to the African-American community, I think he’s parsing it on voter ID.  I don’t think he’s got the facts right about it.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

He’s trying to please the base.  Because the base has sort of a fetish, I think.

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

It’s not a fetish.  There are some of us that actually believe.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Is voter fraud?

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

By the way, I got 50% among the African-American voters in my district.  And I campaigned in predominantly black districts.  I don’t think most Americans are freaked out when you say you should show a picture ID when you go vote.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

I think the issue is sort of how many forms.

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

He is right.  Republicans shouldn’t lead with that.  It’s not a big–

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

It’s disproportionately disadvantaging people who don’t have ID.

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

Let’s be clear.  The problem in voter ID and in restricting early vote is so more people won’t vote.  The news on that answer was he wants to expand early vote.  Let’s expand early vote.  Let’s have 30 days of people voting so that working people don’t have to leave work to go vote.  Let’s do that.

 

(OVERTALK)

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

Provide the ID and not ask a bunch of —

 

(OVERTALK)

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

Rand Paul has done this the smart way.  He’s actually gone out and he’s listened to what people have to say.  So, his conversation in the black community is a legitimate conversation he’s been having now for over a year.  And I’ve said for that same period of time, watch him.

 

Number two, perception matters more than anything else.  So, if I perceive that your policies are racist or impinge upon my access to the franchise, that’s a problem.  And he’s beginning to address that in a legitimate way.  So, all the talk about what’s real and what isn’t doesn’t matter if I feel that you’re suppressing my opportunity.

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

He’s the only Republican who is.

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

And he’s the only one talking about it.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Got to do the pause button.  I’m going to take a brief break here from politics.  We’re going to turn to Ebola in America.  My exclusive conversation with nurse Kaci Hickox who fought and won her battle over the quarantine issue.

 

**Commercial Break**

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

The death toll from Ebola in West Africa is approaching 5,000.  The situation there remains dire.  Here, there’s been an intense debate over the quarantining of health workers returning from West Africa, with some of the country’s most prominent governors, including Chris Christie and Andrew Cuomo, the need to be isolated.  At least that’s what they’ve been fighting for all week long.  Nurse Kaci Hickox of Maine has been fighting a very public and ultimately successful battle against her state’s efforts to quarantine her.

 

On Friday, a judge ruled in Hickok’s favor, saying she did not need to be isolated as long as she is monitored for symptoms and lets health officials know where she is going.  Kaci Hickox joins me now via Skype from her home in Maine.  And her lawyer, Norman Siegel, is also here in the studio.  Norman, thanks for being here.  Kaci, let me start with your court victory.  What was the goal in winning this court battle for you?

 

KACI HICKOX:

 

Well, you know, definitely the goal was to make sure that we are, again, talking about science not politics. I just read an op-ed by Bill Fahey today.  And he said, you know, when Governor Christie stated that it was an abundance of caution, which is his reasoning for putting health care workers in sort of quarantine for three weeks, it was really an abundance of politics.  And I think all of the scientific and medical and public health community agrees with me on that statement.  And I’m really glad that the judge also agrees, looking at the law.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Well, your home state there, Republican Governor Paul LePage, said a couple of things after this order on Friday.  Number one, he said, talking about you, “She’s violated every promise she’s made so far, so I can’t trust her.”  But he said he’s going to abide by the judge’s position.

 

He also said this about Ebola, and I want you to respond to this.  “We don’t know what we don’t know about Ebola.  Therefore, I’m a little disappointed.  But the monkey’s on the judge’s back, not mine.  He made the decision.  We will abide by the ruling.”  When you hear Governor LePage say, “We don’t know what we don’t know about Ebola,” what do you say to that?

 

KACI HICKOX:

 

Well, I think that’s a very true statement.  We don’t know what we don’t know about everything in the world.  But we know a lot about Ebola.  We have been researching this disease for 38 years, since its first appearance in Africa.  And we know how the infection is transmitted from person to person.  And we know that it’s not transmitted from someone who is asymptomatic, as I am and many other aid workers will be when they return.  So, I hope that upon reflection, maybe he’ll change his tune as well.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Now, this morning in an interview you did with the Maine Sunday Telegram, you said because the community is concerned, that you and your boyfriend were going to essentially stay clear and sort of self-quarantine.  Can you explain how you’re going to do that?

 

KACI HICKOX:

 

Yes.  I want to clarify that a bit.  Because I understand that the community has been through a lot in the past week and that I do, you know, apologize to them for that.  I will not go into town, into crowded public places.  You know, I have had a few friends come visit me in my home and that’s absolutely fantastic.

 

But on the other hand, you know, my partner is currently in nursing school.  And there is definitely zero scientific evidence that says that he shouldn’t be allowed to return to his campus on Monday.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Do you think there should be different rules based on population centers?  That maybe I New York City, there should be more precautions and different quarantine rules than, say, in the part of Maine that you live in?

 

KACI HICKOX:

 

I absolutely don’t.  Again, I think when we look at the man from Liberia who, unfortunately, died from Ebola, no one else in his family has become ill yet.  So, again, when we’re looking at the science of how this disease is transmitted, it’s not like influenza. And we don’t quarantine entire families when one person is positive for the flu.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Very quickly, Norman, are all healthcare workers going to need lawyers?

 

NORMAN SIEGEL:

 

Hopefully not.  Hopefully this is a terrific win for Kaci and for health workers.  Her voice and their voice need to be heard in directing this debate.  It should not be the politicians.  It should be the medical people directing this debate.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Kaci, how do you feel about being parodied on Saturday Night Live?

 

KACI HICKOX:

 

You know, I haven’t seen it yet.  My partner and I don’t have cable here.  But I had at least, you know, five or six friends send me text messages to let me know.  So, I will look that up today.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Thank you Kaci Hickox, Thank you Norman Siegel.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

In just a few seconds, it’s back to politics. The midterms aren’t even over and the jockeying for 2016 has already begun.

 

**Commercial Break**

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

And welcome back.  We may be 48 hours from the midterms.  But let’s be honest.  An even bigger election is going to get underway in 72 hours.  And that’s already begun.  The key contenders for the White House in 2016 have been making their presence felt all week long on the trail.  NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell has been tracking that progress.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

Campaign 2014’s frequent fliers.

 

MALE VOICE:

 

Governor Chris Christie of the great State of New Jersey.

 

ANTHONY BROWN:

 

Charlotte’s grandmother, my friend and yours, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

After months insisting they are not the main attraction.

 

GOV. JEB BUSH:

 

I’m not one of the candidates running.  I’m kind of the interlude.  I’m the halftime.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

Hillary Clinton’s 2014 tour covered 16 states.  Jeb Bush made stops in ten.  And Chris Christie traveled 70 days, hitting 37 states.  They are among the most watched members of the 2016 contemplators’ club.

 

HILLARY CLINTON:

 

Well, it is true.  I am thinking about it.

 

CHRIS CHRISTIE:

 

I’m not being coy about it.  I’m obviously thinking about it.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

But then, George P. Bush did his thinking out loud, claiming his father, Jeb, is more than likely to jump in.  The former Florida governor said, “Hold on.”

 

GOV. JEB BUSH:

 

You love them to death.  And they have their own opinions.  But I’ll make up my mind just as I said at the end of the year.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

Hillary Clinton did the talking that raised eyebrows when she veered left.

 

HILLARY CLINTON:

 

Don’t let anybody tell you that, you know, it’s corporations and businesses that create jobs.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

And when a heckler got in Chris Christie’s face.

 

CHRIS CHRISTIE:

 

You want to have the conversation later, I’m happy to have it, buddy.  But until that time, sit down and shut up.

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

Christie’s leadership style bellowed far beyond New Jersey.  But there was no apology tour.

 

CHRIS CHRISTIE:

 

It’s advice that I got from my mother a long time ago.  She said to me, “Christopher, just be yourself.”

 

KELLY O’DONNELL:

 

But thinking-about-it class of 2016 is on this message.  They’re not in any hurry.  For Meet the Press, Kelly O’Donnell, NBC News.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

All right.  Panel is still here.  We’re going to go back and we’re going to project the Senate.  You guys are going to collectively project the Senate.  But let’s go 2016 very quickly.  Who’s had a better 2014, in your opinion, Robert?  Has Hillary Clinton had a good enough 2014 to change the party from being the party of Obama to back to being the party of the Clintons?

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

Well, look, that’s going to be a process that takes more time than just 2014.  I don’t think she’s had a particularly good run with the book.  I wouldn’t have done as many interviews as she did.  I think they hastened the process of Republican attacks, which were certainly going to come.  But I would’ve waited.  I will say, as a Democrat sitting here, you have to be impressed with what Rand Paul was saying.  To have a positive talking point before the election I think is usually important.  And I think Jeb Bush is one to watch.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

You know, Andrea, it’s interesting.  On the Clintons here, I can tell you this.  In the South, Democrats are desperate for the party to become the party of Bill Clinton again.  I don’t know if they’re all in on Hillary, but they definitely wish that Bill Clinton could be running.

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

And Bill Clinton has been the most popular Democratic surrogate.  I don’t know how you lose a book tour.  That’s a hard thing to lose.  But, you know, she’s not plenty of time to regroup.  I think standing next to Elizabeth Warren and changing her position, you know, she is from Wall Street.  She has taken the money.  She was a senator from New York.  You don’t have to apologize.  She has to be authentic.  But she still has time on that.  And she has enormous advantages.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Who’s the Republican front runner, Michael Steele?

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

Rand Paul.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Right there?

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

Right there.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Done?

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

You’ve got the organization on the ground right now.  He’s in all 50 states.  He’s got young folks gravitating towards him.  He’s got African Americans taking a pause and looking at him.  As it was just acknowledged, Democrats are saying, “Okay.  Let’s see.”

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

But the party establishment is against him.

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

That’s a separate piece.  I think in terms of ’14, he has done the best.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Joe, do you agree with that?

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

No.  Rand Paul is going to run a great race.  He’s going to do better than his father.  And he’s not going to win.  Because Main Street Republicans win.  And you’ve got two choices that we talked about here, Jeb or Chris Christie.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

You think that’s it?

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

No.  Who had the best 2014?  Without a doubt, Mitt Romney.

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

Romney.

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

Mitt was right on Russia.  Mitt was right on Iraq.  Mitt was right in the debates.  It’s really unbelievable.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Okay.  Let me just say this.  I would argue, though, in 2014, the other candidate we’re leaving out here, John Kasich.  Not in a tough race.  He could be the governor, some governor.  He could overtake Christie.

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

That’s a great point.  He won with 49% of votes.  We’re not even talking.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

This time, he’s going to win with 60%.  All right, quickly, I’ve got a toy here.  We can start picking the Senate.  And the final ten are here.  I don’t know any Democrats that think Arkansas is, you know, right now.  Let’s assume the polls are right in Arkansas.  And let’s assume the polls are right now with Kentucky.  So, that gets Republicans at 47%.  They need four more.  Where do you go?  How are we feeling collectively here about Georgia?  Runoff?

 

PANELISTS:

 

Runoff.  Runoff.  Runoff.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

It’s a runoff.  So, we’ll leave that in there.  Iowa?  Does everybody think it’s going to go Republican or not?

 

PANELISTS:

 

It’s Republican.  Republican.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Wow.  I don’t buy it.  But I’ll put it over here for you guys very quickly.  Colorado?  Anybody here?  Or are you nervous about it?

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

I’m not. Only because Republicans have 100,000 votes in the bank.

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

I’m not, It’s close and the governor’s race is trending in the Democratic way.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

All right.  If you give them that, and we’ll stay here.  We’ve got to runoffs.  New Hampshire, do you give to Shaheen for now?

 

PANELISTS:

 

Yes.  Yes.

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

And give us North Carolina.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Give you North Carolina, Hagan.  So, now we’re sitting at Republicans have to find two and they can’t afford to lose Kansas or Georgia.  Let’s keep Kansas in here.  So, let’s say Alaska goes to form.  They sit at 50%.  This is how the night could end up, two runoffs and Greg Orman sitting in the middle.  What do you think of that, Joe?

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

I think even though I’ve been predicting for two years that Mary Landrieu’s going to win by 6.5 votes.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Six and a half votes?

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

She always wins by 6.5 votes.  I don’t see Louisiana in a runoff going Democratic in 2014.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

If it’s for the Senate.  But I tell you, this is why this is on a razor edge.  Michael Steele?

 

MICHAEL STEELE:

 

That’s absolutely why.  And I agree with Joe.  I think Louisiana, at the end of the day, is going to fall for Republicans in a runoff.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Andrea?

 

ANDREA MITCHELL:

 

And I think Shaheen is in real trouble.  She should have a lot of built-in–

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

New Hampshire to me, it’s the wave test.  If Scott Brown on the East Coast, right, if that’s where it’s happening and Brown’s winning–

 

JOE SCARBOROUGH:

 

I keep hearing from Democrats.  And I keep thinking that Shaheen is going to win New Hampshire.  I keep hearing from Democrats that she’s in big trouble.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

There it is.  Last word.

 

ROBERT GIBBS:

 

The biggest thing is geography, right.  New Hampshire’s a purple state.  She won with 52% six years ago at a high water mark.  A bunch of these races, even somebody like Kay Hagan, who’s done a brilliant campaign.

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Remember in ’02 in a midterm year, she lost a race for a Senate seat, Jeanne Shaheen did.  All right.  Before we go, I’m told I should share some lighter moments from our battleground

 

road trip, where I interviewed 43 voters, ten candidates, seven states.  By the way, here’s my advice for surviving a 3,153-mile road trip.  It’s all about roadside coffee.

 

(BEGIN TAPE OF MEET THE VOTER TOUR HIGHLIGHTS)

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

(In RV) I like dry cereal. Always have. I mean, I like regular, but. (Outside truck stop) Bratwurst.  NBC won’t let me drink beer right now.  I’m on the clock. (In parking lot) Good roadside coffee in the North is Dunkin Donuts.  Good roadside coffee in the South is Waffle House. That’s why we’re here tonight. (Pumping gas, then in a store) This is my go-to snack (holding bag). There’s nothing better than gas station coffee. (Cut to farm, to goat) Who do you got? Burke or Walker? Undecided? (Laughs)

 

(END TAPE)

 

CHUCK TODD:

 

Phew.  Two hours of show in one.  That’s all for today.  Please remember to join Brian Williams and myself and many of these folks here at the table for election night.  We’ll have complete coverage.  We’ll be back next week to try to figure out this agenda at this point.  Because if it’s Sunday, it’s Meet the Press.

 

* * *END OF TRANSCRIPT* * *

 

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